My Take: The 2014 Georgia Senate Race

DISCLAIMER: My own personal views DO NOT reflect the views of Congressman John Barrow nor the views of any of his staff. These are my personal opinions that I would like to share with y'all. Additionally, if you are to leave any comments, please make them respectful or else I will delete them. Successful debates consist of respectful disagreement--key word being respectful. Thank you. 

Not to the surprise of many, Michelle Nunn (Democratic Party) officially launched her campaign for Georgia's open Senate seat in 2014.  Earlier this year, current Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss announced that he would not seek re-election and opted to retire instead. The timing of Chambliss' decision couldn't have come at a more interesting time. While Georgia is still a red state, it is certainly not a Republican stranglehold. In fact, changing demographics and a steady rise in African American and Latino populations have some political scientists declaring Georgia as a purple state--or in essence, a swing state. With Georgia Democrats feeling much more optimistic, this upcoming Senate race is sure to be an interesting one.

For those of you who aren't familiar with Michelle Nunn, allow me to informally introduce you to her. Nunn is a Georgia native and the current CEO of Points of Light, a non-profit organization. She attended University of Virginia and Harvard where she earned her Master's in public administration. Yet perhaps most importantly, she is the daughter of former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. Sam Nunn, also a Democrat, was widely renowned for his expertise on foreign policy and national defense. This strong family tie makes the Senate race even more intriguing. Sam Nunn was and is still to this day a beloved Georgian. Consequently, his daughter is sure to benefit from his legacy. 

Michelle Nunn, Democratic candidate for the Senate.

For anyone who has taken basic undergraduate political science, you probably have learned about the incumbency advantage and open seats, etc. So, you should know that it is much easier for a newcomer to get elected when there is an open seat--especially if that newcomer is from the other party. Additionally, to launch a successful campaign, a candidate must possess: strong name recognition, the ability to effectively fund-raise, political experience, endorsements, etc. And of course, running against a weaker opponent helps as well. So, let us look at Michelle Nunn's chances of getting elected by stacking her up against the listed criteria:

• Strong Name Recognition: This is an obvious one. Nunn probably has as strong of a name as you could possibly have. Look for her to work her familial connections like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sam Nunn playing an active role in the campaign. Certainly, her father will serve as a great resource as well.  

• Ability to Effective Fund-raise: Again, this shouldn't be a problem for Nunn. It goes hand-in-hand with her familial ties; former Sam Nunn supporters are sure to contribute to his daughter. Additionally, Michelle Nunn's work in the Georgia community through her nonprofit organization gives her a lot recognition and resources. She is very well-known in Georgia, which should translate to a lot of monetary contributions.

• Political Experience: Here's where Michelle Nunn could falter a little bit. While I'm sure she has learned a lot from her father's Senate career, Nunn herself has never held political office. This could be an issue for a lot of Georgia voters. I expect her Republican challengers to exploit her lack of political experience by calling her unqualified.

• Endorsements: This is another questionable factor for Michelle Nunn. She'll obviously have the support of her father and his supporters. However, ironically, it could be political endorsements that cost Nunn election. Her relationship and praise of President Obama may not sit well with moderate, Republican-leaning swing voters who view the President as being too liberal.

As far as Michelle Nunn's opponents go, they are certainly anything but weak. Current Georgia Representative Jack Kingston (GA-1) appears to be the frontrunner for Republicans. Though Kingston is a staunch conservative, he is more closely aligned with the current ideological makeup of Georgia than his fellow GOP challengers. Representative Paul Broun (GA-10) and Phil Gingrey (GA-11) may be a little too conservative for the entire state of Georgia, which is leaning to the center more than ever. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel could also pose a legitimate threat. But for now, Kingston is clearly the Republican frontrunner. While he may not have as strong of a name as Nunn, he clearly has more political experience. His ability to effectively fundraise and appeal to voters statewide remains to be seen.

Could 2014 be the year that Georgia turns purple? Personally, I think it's a little too soon. Just a year ago, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney carried the state fairly easily. Additionally, Republicans still hold every single statewide position in Georgia. Thus, I don't think this is the year that Democrats take one back. But as I previously stated, Georgia's demographics are rapidly changing and pushing the state leftward. Come the 2016 Presidential Election, I believe that Georgia will be a little more inclined to elect a Democrat to office. And by 2018, I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia transforms into a critical battleground state.

Nevertheless, a Democratic candidate like Michelle Nunn certainly makes the race a whole lot more intriguing. Get your popcorn ready, Georgia. This should be a good one!